R win certainD win certainGrey: no race · thick outline: your pick · (I) independent in the Democratic lane
Senate seats
National environment
Generic ballot (polls)
Forecast environment
Presidential net approval
Over the campaign
Click a chart to jump to the nearest date with simulations.
Chance of Democratic win ()
Generic ballot average (D − R)
Presidential net approval
Races
Chances and margins update with your picks. Open a row to see every poll in its average.
Every number comes from simulated elections: 10,000 for the latest 2026 day, 2,000 for earlier dates and past elections. A pick keeps only the simulations where that race went your way, so every other race, the seat totals and the House move with it. Senate and presidential picks combine.
Past elections show what the model would have said on that date using only information available then: polls released by that day and model settings fit on earlier cycles.
Poll average: weighted by recency, sample size, likely-voter screen and pollster reliability from earlier cycles, after removing house effects (each pollster's historical lean, updated with how its polls compare with other pollsters' this cycle) and moving registered-voter polls to a likely-voter basis; stale polls are shifted by how much the national environment has moved since. Independents running in the Democratic lane count as Democratic seats.